CFOs are bullish on profits amid AI enthusiasm

Finance leaders now overwhelmingly say AI is making an impact on performance, not just potential. Forty percent said AI ROI exceeded expectations, and another 44% rated returns as meeting expectations in a finding that surprised Grant Thornton Partner, AI & Data Sumeet Mahajan. He has spent many months answering questions from CFOs who have been concerned that their AI returns might not match their AI investments.

Mahajan said organizations may need a broader framework for measuring AI ROI in bottom-up use cases such as employee adoption of basic, enterprise-wide tools. While productivity gains may not immediately translate into measurable profit-and-loss (P&L) impact, value is often realized through improved output, faster decision-making and employees’ ability to focus on higher-value activities.

Meanwhile, AI revenue transformation is being driven by top-down AI installations where leadership re-engineers enterprise-level processes and workflows to capitalize on AI capabilities.

“Stay focused on adopting AI in the functions that make the most sense to transform in accordance with your business strategy.”

Sumeet Mahajan 

Partner, AI & Data
Grant Thornton Advisors LLC

“CFOs are using a broader lens of what value is, so they’re seeing those returns,” Mahajan said. “And some companies are deploying transformative workflow-level use cases and seeing the benefits. The potential we are seeing here is exciting and encouraging.”

For many organizations, however, AI-driven revenue growth remains an emerging opportunity rather than a result that has already been accomplished. One-third of finance leaders report enhanced revenue as an AI benefit, indicating that the next phase of value will depend on extending AI beyond productivity tools and into enterprise processes and workflows.

The survey also sheds light on the areas of organizations that are being transformed the most by AI today. Perhaps predictably given their position, finance leaders said finance and accounting was the top function for AI-driven transformation. Customer service was close behind, followed by cybersecurity.

There was a significant gap between those who identified finance and accounting as a top-three area for AI transformation (39%) and those who selected supply chain (6%). But Mahajan said that’s OK.

As AI technology and returns increasingly meet CFO expectations, organizational execution is becoming a more significant constraint. Although finance leaders are largely satisfied with their transformation progress, competing priorities, limited budgets and change-management gaps may prevent organizations from capturing AI’s full value.

Eighty-four percent of finance leaders say their transformation progress is meeting or exceeding expectations, and just 16% report frequent delays or struggles with their strategic transformation outcomes. But they identify competing business priorities (43%) and budget constraints (43%) as their top obstacles to transformation.

These obstacles are closely connected. When organizations spread funding and leadership attention across too many initiatives, individual transformation efforts may lack the resources and focus required to succeed.

One-third of finance leaders said more disciplined prioritization was a top element that would improve their ability to transform.

“The best organizations might put 15 objectives on a roadmap, but they identify three to five core enterprise priorities that they absolutely must get right,” said Grant Thornton Transformation Partner Jennifer Morelli.

“Companies spend time redesigning systems, but they don’t spend time redesigning how people should do their jobs. That’s a big opportunity to drive lasting value.”

Jennifer Morelli 

Partner, Transformation
Grant Thornton Advisors LLC

The survey also shows a technology element to the transformation challenge. The top actions needed to improve an organization’s ability to transform are better technology infrastructure and better data and analytics, according to the survey.

Morelli also pointed to the human element as an area where companies fall short in transformation.

“You need to redesign the work,” she said. “Companies spend time redesigning systems, but they don’t spend time redesigning how people should do their jobs. That’s a big opportunity to drive lasting value.”

The need for disciplined execution extends beyond AI. Finance leaders are also navigating tax provisions, tariffs and trade-policy changes that can create value or erode it depending on how effectively organizations respond.

Respondents had more negative views than positive views of the current geopolitical stability (43% negative to 31% positive) and trade policy and tariffs (44% to 34%). The harm done to many businesses by tariffs and trade policy shifts has offset some of the benefits from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) tax law.

Forty-four percent said the OBBBA provisions improved their business, compared with 21% who said the tax law harmed their business. But 60% said tariffs and trade policy shifts have caused harm, while 26% benefited from these shifts.

“It’s clearly a mixed bag, with counterbalancing weights,” said David Sites, National Managing Partner of Grant Thornton’s Washington National Tax Office. “When you look at it on balance, OBBBA gave to businesses, and tariffs took away from businesses.”

Even though the OBBBA was signed into law 14 months ago, Sites said some companies haven’t fully capitalized on its provisions. For example, in addition to making international tax provisions permanent, the bill modified them with benefits that might not be obvious to company leaders.

The OBBBA’s foreign-derived income incentive’s reduced tax rate became more widely available to exporters than under previous law. Because of this change and others, comprehensive analysis of the new provisions and their interaction with one another have the potential to uncover more tax savings.

“You have to do your homework, and you have to be good at implementation to take advantage of all the benefits of the OBBBA,” Sites said.

“Demand looks good, and the survey results indicate optimism about future profits and the ability to maintain growth. In a way, that all comes back to the American consumer.”

David  E.  Sites 

National Managing Partner,
Washington National Tax Office
Grant Thornton Advisors LLC

In the changing tax and tariff environment, company leaders need to:

• Focus intently on compliance: The OBBBA is complex, and tariff rules are constantly shifting, making compliance difficult.
• Pursue tariff refunds when available: Companies that may be eligible for tariff refunds should evaluate available opportunities and determine whether further action is appropriate.
• Monitor pricing and the supply chain: Some tariff costs might need to be passed on to consumers (and perhaps tariff refunds should be passed along, too). And suppliers with large tariff exposures might be able to be replaced by those subject to lower duties.

Despite all those challenges, companies are fortunate that one economic factor continues to work strongly in their favor. Sixty-one percent of finance leaders have a positive view of customer demand, compared with just 15% who have a negative view.

“The American consumer remains fairly strong,” Sites said. “Demand looks good, and the survey results indicate optimism about future profits and the ability to maintain growth. In a way, that all comes back to the American consumer.”