Tariff roundup: SCOTUS wait, Iran, Greenland and AI chips

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The Supreme Court has yet to issue its much-anticipated decision in the lawsuit over President Donald Trump’s novel use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to implement tariffs, but the administration is continuing to rely on the law for additional tariffs and threats. It also has already pointed to other tools it plans to use to maintain elevated tariff levels if the court does not uphold the current system.

The timing of a decision remains unclear, as the Supreme Court does not announce in advance when decisions in particular cases will come. However, plaintiffs in the case and the federal government have repeatedly asked for expedited consideration of the combined lawsuit on IEEPA tariffs that led to the Supreme Court’s November hearing, because of the broad economic impact and significant legal and constitutional issues at play.

Using IEEPA, the president has imposed a 10% global tariff and varying levels of country-specific tariffs on products imported from nearly every country in the world, including key U.S. trading partners such as Canada, Mexico, China and the European Union. The Supreme Court could uphold these tariffs, or they could order them rolled back. In the latter case, the administration says it will use other tools, including more traditional Section 232 and 301 investigations, to maintain tariff levels and the revenue they produce.

Trump also told the New York Times in early January that he could look to the use of import licenses instead, if the IEEPA tariffs are struck down.

“I have the right to license,” he said referring to language in IEEPA that allows the president regulate imports “by means of instructions, licenses, or otherwise.”

Trump has routinely highlighted the amount of money his tariffs — at the highest level in a century — are raising. The additional revenue that has resulted from the duties imposed on companies and consumers importing products into the U.S. was made clearer in a recent Congressional Budget Office report, published on Jan. 9. The governmental economic and budgetary office estimates that tariff revenues exceeded corporate tax receipts during the fourth quarter of 2025, $91 billion versus $81 billion.

This represents a five-times increase in tariff revenue and a $28 billion drop in corporate tax receipts for the federal government from the same time the year before. This can largely be attributed to the fourth quarter of 2025 being the first full quarter in which all country-specific tariffs — most of which were levied in August using IEEPA — were put in effect. It also was the first full quarter in which firms benefited from the revived business tax benefits from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed into law on July 4. 

Secondary Greenland- and Iran-related tariffs

Trump’s latest pledge to raise tariffs on European countries that support Denmark’s continued control of Greenland threatens to upend the more than $1.5 trillion annual flow of goods and services between the U.S. and the European Union.

On Jan. 17, Trump said in a social media post that he would place an additional 10% tariff on imports from the United Kingdom, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland, beginning on Feb. 1. Trump added that those tariffs would increase to 25% on June 1, “until such time as a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland.” He later told NBC news that he will “100%” follow through on the threat.

Most of the countries targeted are also members of the EU, causing a public push to end a tentative agreement the EU and U.S. made last year to de-escalate trade tensions over Trump’s initial IEEPA tariffs. That trade framework avoided retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products by the EU, as well as possible escalation against U.S. services, in return for a stable 15% import duty on most EU-origin products.  

Trump will meet with European leaders later this week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, to further discuss Greenland.

Separately, in a social media post on Jan. 12, the president suggested imposing 25% tariffs on imports from countries that do business with Iran. The White House has yet to elaborate on this position or publish a related executive order. Iran’s primary trade partners include China, Iraq, India, the United Arab Emirates and multiple members of the European Union. It’s unclear whether Trump intends any additional duties to “stack” on top of existing tariffs on products from those countries, but unilateral increases could upset additional handshake trade agreements between the administration and several of those jurisdictions.