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Trade tensions between the Trump administration and Chinese government flared again, as the Chinese government announced an early October expansion of export controls on rare earth minerals critical to many technologies.
President Donald Trump threatened to restore tariffs on Chinese imports to approximately the baseline level they briefly reached in spring, before de-escalatory meetings between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and their Chinese counterparts saw a détente to the trade war in May. The current 30% baseline rate on most Chinese imports is the result of a 90-day “pause” until Nov. 10 as trade negotiations take place.
“…[S]tarting November 1st, 2025 (or sooner, depending on any further actions or changes taken by China), the United States of America will impose a tariff of 100% on China, over and above any tariff,” currently in place on Chinese imports, Trump posted. “Also on November 1st, we will impose Export Controls on any and all critical software.”
No executive order for either action has been issued. Typically, the Trump administration releases such orders closer to the date announced by the president. Trump softened his tone two days later, posting, “The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!” on Oct. 12 but on Oct. 14 posted, “I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act.” In the same post Trump said the U.S. is “terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade, as retribution.”
Bessent and Greer added in public remarks on Oct. 15 that the U.S. would seek coordination with allies to increase leverage with China over rare earth minerals.
“This is China vs. the world,” Bessent said. “We and our allies will neither be commanded, nor controlled.”
Whether allies will be receptive to U.S. leadership on trade remains to be seen. Trump hiked duties on imports from all countries this year, and in his first term, ended negotiations over the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a major free-trade deal aimed at lowering trade barriers between several southeast Asian countries and the U.S., in large part to counter Chinese economic influence.
Trump generally favors a unilateral, competition-between-nations approach over multilateral negotiations and coalition-building. That could pave the way for a return of near-embargo tariff levels with China on Nov. 1, as threatened. But the president also has demonstrated he is sensitive to stock market drops, and a re-escalation with China would almost certainly result in market volatility.
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