Compensation planning continues to evolve in response to economic shifts, regulatory changes, and workforce expectations. As organizations prepare for 2026, five key trends remain central: managing cost of labor, use of employee benefits to differentiate, next-gen pay transparency, emerging regulatory environment and the use of variable pay. Here's how employers can respond.
2026 compensation budgets
Salary increase budgets are showing signs of contraction, as early indications suggest that 2026 budgets will step down from 2025 forecasts that were made around this time last year. The consensus 2026 forecast seems to be between 3.2% and 3.5%, slightly down from reported actual 2025 budgets. For example, according to World at Work’s 2025–2026 Salary Budget Survey, U.S. organizations are projecting mean salary increase budgets of 3.6% in 2026, down from 3.7% actual in 2025 and 3.9% actual in 2024. This marks a continued pullback from the post-pandemic highs of 4.4% in 2023.
This trend will vary across labor sectors and local markets. For example, healthcare and social service organizations continue to have labor pressure. This resulted in wages and salary growth of 4.5% over the 12-month period ending in June 2025 based on recent BLS Employment Cost data that was recently released. In terms of location variances, wages and salaries in the Minneapolis area increased by 5.7% over the 12-month period ending in June 2025.
The reasons for this moderation and sector variations include:
- Availability of labor
- Economic uncertainty and cost management concerns
- Lower voluntary turnover
- A shift toward more targeted pay strategies
Another trend is the potential for these budgets to be different depending on the employer’s use of general or across-the-board increases and performance-based merit. This trend can be particularly challenging for organizations that continue to rely on general or across the board increases.
Despite the dip and sector differences, these projections remain above the 3% norm seen throughout much of the past decade — indicating that employers still feel pressure to stay competitive in a tight labor market.
2026 employee benefit budgets
While salary budgets are moderating, employee benefit costs continue to rise — and their perceived value is rising in tandem. According to the BLS, employer costs for benefits accounted for nearly 30% of total compensation for private-industry workers as of the March 2025 survey. This marks a steady increase in benefit spending, even as wage growth slows.
Labor economists note that the labor force participation rate remains below pre-pandemic levels — hovering around 62.6% in mid-2025, down from 63.4% in early 2020. Many workers reentering the labor market are doing so with new expectations: flexibility, wellness and financial security are increasingly valued over pure salary maximization. Despite these sentiments, rising inflation, particularly with respect to housing, place pressure on the need to balance cash compensation with an ever- increasing array of benefits.
In response, employers are expected to:
- Re-evaluate benefit plan design to balance cost and competitiveness
- Explore voluntary benefits such as legal services, financial counseling, and fertility support
- Leverage tax-advantaged programs introduced under the One Big Beautiful Bill, including expanded dependent care and educational assistance exclusions
In short, while cash remains king, benefits are the crown jewels of total compensation. Employers who invest in meaningful, well-communicated benefit programs will be better positioned to attract and retain talent in a labor market that values lifestyle and purpose as much as pay.
Pay equity and transparency
Pay transparency legislation continues to expand across states and municipalities. As of mid-2026, more than a dozen states — including California, New York, and Illinois — require employers to disclose salary ranges in job postings, with additional jurisdictions mandating transparency during the hiring process. Federal legislation such as H.R. 1599 remains under consideration, signaling growing momentum toward nationwide standards.
Many employers have easily adopted the regulatory view of pay transparency but continue to struggle with more meaningful communication or consistent application of the stated values of transparency.
Employers must navigate this complex landscape and proactively address pay equity. Budget constraints may complicate efforts to close pay gaps, but transparency is increasingly seen as a competitive advantage in attracting and retaining talent.
One Big Beautiful Bill changes
The landscape of compensation planning shifted significantly with the enactment of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Public Law 119-21), signed into law on July 4, 2025. Two provisions in particular — the exemption of qualifying overtime wages from federal income tax and enhancements to fringe benefit programs — are poised to reshape employer strategies in 2026.
No tax on overtime pay: Starting Jan. 1, 2025, employees who earn qualifying overtime pay may deduct the “premium” portion of their overtime — typically the extra half of “time-and-a-half” compensation — from their taxable income. Key details include:
- Deduction limit: Up to $12,500 for individual filers and $25,000 for joint filers annually
- Eligibility: Applies to W-2 employees whose overtime meets Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) criteria
- Income phase-out: Begins at $150,000 (single) or $300,000 (married filing jointly) in modified adjusted gross income
- Reporting requirements: Employers must separately report qualifying overtime on W-2 forms
This provision offers a meaningful tax break for millions of workers and may influence employee preferences for overtime work. Employers should prepare to update payroll systems and educate employees on the implications for take-home pay and tax filing.
Fringe benefit enhancements: The bill also introduced or expanded several fringe benefit programs that employers may leverage to attract and retain talent:
- Educational assistance: Employer payments toward student loans are now permanently excluded from taxable income, with annual limits adjusted for inflation
- Dependent care assistance: Expanded eligibility and increased maximum exclusion amounts for employer-sponsored child care programs
- Paid family and medical leave credit: Extended and enhanced, allowing employers to claim tax credits for qualifying leave programs
- Trump accounts: A new savings vehicle for workers, with employer contributions excluded from taxable income under pilot programs in 2026
These changes encourage employers to revisit their total rewards strategy and consider offering more robust benefit packages that align with employee needs and tax advantages.
Variable pay to slow wages and increase cash compensation
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) shows the quits rate declined to 2.3% in June 2025, down from 2.6% a year earlier, indicating lower voluntary turnover. Employers are shifting focus from sign-on bonuses to retention strategies.
The Conference Board reports increased investment in performance-based pay and promotions, with less reliance on one-time incentives. Employers are refining variable pay programs by:
- Expanding eligibility
- Recalibrating performance metrics
- Aligning payouts with strategic goals
Variable pay remains a flexible tool to reward and retain talent in a dynamic labor market.
Five actions to strengthen compensation programs
To prepare for these trends, employers should:
- Evaluate competitiveness: Benchmark critical roles using current market data.
- Evaluate effectiveness: Apply program evaluation criteria to determine where adjustments are needed.
- Allocate strategically: Adjust total compensation budgets to address changing sentiment, internal equity and market gaps.
- Engage business leaders: Promote transparency and gather feedback on pay practices.
- Simplify design to strengthen engagement: Use design principles to simplify business processes and strengthen engagement.
Compensation planning in 2026 demands agility, transparency, and strategic foresight. Employers must balance compliance, equity and competitiveness while navigating economic headwinds and technological disruption. A well-designed compensation program is not just a cost — it’s a catalyst for growth, engagement and long-term success.
Conducting regular reviews of broad-based employee compensation arrangements is increasingly important to improve alignment with longer-term objectives and identify potential human capital risks, including compliance with the changing regulatory environment.
Contacts:
Chicago, Illinois
Partner, Human Capital Services
Grant Thornton Advisors LLC
Eric Gonzaga is a Principal and practice leader for the Human Capital Services (HCS) group in Minneapolis.
Minneapolis, Minnesota
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