Plan now for agility in energy

Energy firms are used to volatility. The constant shifts in energy prices mean that leaders have learned to plan around change. However, today’s market environment demands even more agility.

“The struggle is that there are competing pressures,” said Grant Thornton Head of the Energy Industry Tyler Jones. “You have declining commodity prices that put pressure on margins, but you also have uncertainty on tariffs and what will happen with trade agreements.” With all of the issues they have to consider, it can be hard for companies to prioritize and plan.

Energy prices have recently been a challenge for many companies, Jones said. “What we’ve seen from a commodity pricing standpoint is that there’s been downward pressure on the published market price for oil, in particular, so that’s led to some reduced activity and a broader sensitivity to costs in general.”

Companies have been able to counter these cost pressures with efficient production, but trade issues could present another challenge. “The administration has indicated that they could withdraw from the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, USMCA,” said Colin Wilhelm, Manager, Legislative Affairs, Grant Thornton Washington National Tax Office. “Those are our two biggest trade partners — more than half the oil we import comes from Canada — so, it would have a significant impact if more trade barriers with those two countries go up or if we were to actually remove ourselves from USMCA.”

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“Energy companies have been resilient, taking actions to improve cost efficiency and adjust operating models or defray tariff costs,” Jones said. To maintain their resilience, companies need to factor in some key opportunities and challenges.

Planning factors

Companies need to build agility with plans that factor in their potential tax incentives, supply chain strategies and market developments.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) provides a range of incentives for energy customers, and these incentives can also help energy companies drive growth. “There are some major carrots as incentives for investment,” Wilhelm said.

The bill includes a return to 100% bonus depreciation, a more generous calculation of net interest deduction, and a revival of domestic R&D expensing. It also includes a new qualified production property temporary provision that allows for the expensing of structures involved in domestic manufacturing or production — which could include chemical production or other activities for energy companies.

Some provisions of the OBBBA, like the qualified production property provision, have deadlines for when activities must take place. So companies need to understand both the opportunities and their timing as leaders consider incentives in their capital allocation and scenario planning.

Tax incentives for domestic activity, along with tariff pressures, mean that “Companies should continue to evaluate nearshoring and look for vendor and supply arrangements that are based in the U.S.,” Jones said. “As tariffs continue in 2026, companies will continue to try to pull supplier relationships closer.”

Current pressures have already increased the competition for domestic business partners, but companies can analyze whether strategic options might fit their unique needs. “There’s no silver bullet, but some companies are looking at bonded warehouses, free trade areas and other strategies — there’s a variety of different strategies that will be company-specific,” Wilhelm said.

Scenario planning

All of these planning factors will continue to evolve, but they can be analyzed and managed. In a changing environment like this, data is the best resilience. With robust data, companies can build scenarios that illuminate options and inform decisions in advance.