Survey shows dispute volume is on the rise
M&A professionals are expecting and experiencing more disputes over working capital and earnouts in 2024 than in prior years, according to a new Grant Thornton survey, as high inflation is proving to be an obstacle to earnouts and high interest rates are squeezing buyers.
More than one-fourth (27%) of respondents to Grant Thornton’s recent M&A pulse survey said they have been experiencing or foresee more disputes in 2024 than in previous years. Just 2% of respondents reported a decrease in disputes.
This is not entirely surprising. A 2023 survey question about working capital — one of two basic categories of accounting transactional disputes — foreshadowed this increased activity. In that survey, almost half of all respondents felt that the threat of economic slowdown and/or inflation affected the likelihood that they would dispute working capital compared to previous years. Specifically, 41% found this “somewhat likely,” while 8% found it “significantly likely.”
Grant Thornton Risk Advisory Services Managing Director Charles Blank acknowledged the pressures that inflation exerts on the ability of sellers to achieve earnouts: “If you don't have the ability to raise prices, but your costs are going up, that could negatively affect the target’s earnings and the resulting earnout measure.”
But the 2024 responses suggest a broader array of causes.
A response to recent pressures
High interest rates have exerted pressures on buyers. Grant Thornton Transaction Advisory Services Managing Director Max Mitchell articulated the buyer’s mindset: “If it's going to cost me money to raise the money for a payout, maybe I can find a way to push down what I need to pay.”
The increase in disputes is, in many ways, a natural byproduct of the recent history of M&A activity. As Mitchell explained, “In 2021, coming out of the pandemic, there was easy access to capital which spiked deal volume and drove up valuations. That was followed by a slowdown and a gap in expected valuations between buyers and sellers.”
“Financing became more expensive, which had two consequences: first, deal teams which weren’t executing new deals had more time to focus on post-closing working capital true-ups and earnouts. Secondly, they had a strong incentive to claw back some of the value that had been paid when valuations were high.”
In addition, the 2024 survey found that 40% of respondents were holding back on deals until after the election, further contributing to diminished activity and increased scrutiny of existing deals.
The persistence of enduring challenges
This desire to recapture value is exacerbated by the very nature of deals, where there are strong initial pressures to get the deal done. Processes are often contingent on successfully achieving an earnout and an assumed ongoing agreement on working capital matters.
After closing, there can be strong pressure on the buy side team to extract as much value as possible. Mitchell noted that “I’ve never seen as many buyers suggesting that sellers have potentially misrepresented prior accounting as I have in the past year. And it’s not necessarily intentional misrepresentation. It’s just that, in the run up to the deal, accounting nuances can be overlooked.”
When the buyer eventually takes control of the company, they have much better access to detailed information — and the time to process that information — so they can see new issues that they previously didn’t recognize or have access to see.
Stakeholder incentives
The nature of the parties can increase the propensity for disputes. On the seller side, a founder who has turned over their life’s work often has the time to carefully scrutinize the execution of the deal. Blank observed that it’s not simply a matter of having time on their hands: “A lot of emotion gets into it because they are often selling businesses they’ve held for a long time, they’ve looked forward to capturing the earnout, and now if it’s not happening, there’s cause for concern.”
Similarly, buyer-side deal teams looking at relatively fewer deals may have more time to look for ways to challenge earnouts or working capital calculations.
Complicating factors
Certain factors are more likely to generate disputes. For example, the Grant Thornton team has seen an increase in carveouts. Carveouts naturally create complexity — there’s more judgment involved as assets, liabilities, revenues and expenses are allocated. Complexity, in turn, creates issues.
There’s also been an increase in earnouts. Blank explained that “earnouts often represent more significant value than a working capital dispute because the agreement is structured in a way that it’s a bigger adjustment to the overall purchase price.” Because more money is at stake, earnouts are more likely to be disputed. Earnouts based on Adjusted EBITDA rather than revenue are particularly likely to give rise to contentiousness because the relative complexity of EBITDA, and adjustments to it, create opportunities for manipulation.
Obviously, many things can spur disputes. For example, the Grant Thornton team has also recently noticed disputes precipitated by customer bankruptcies and post-closing inventory reviews.
That’s why Mitchell counsels an emphasis on the fundamentals — specifically, upfront due diligence and careful negotiations.
Back to basics
Unlike the number of disputes in a given year, the fundamentals of diligence and careful negotiations don’t change substantially over time.
- Look at possible areas of contention early, so you can be as clear as possible about your methodology. Based on that examination of the deal, advocate for clear language and specific accounting policies to avoid problems that can arise through the lack of detailed accounting practices and reliance on judgment calls or estimations.
- Build out an example to help parties reviewing the transaction at a later date, but understand the limitations in an example to predict the future.
- If there’s an earnout, carefully consider and specify the timing, scheduling and financial and non-financial metrics being measured.
As long as there is money at stake, there will be disputes. But due diligence can go a long way toward minimizing them.
Contacts:
Charles K. Blank
Managing Director, Forensic Investigation and Disputes Services, Risk Advisory Services
Grant Thornton Advisors LLC
Charles advises clients on disputes and investigations involving complex accounting matters under US GAAP and IFRS. In addition, as a leader in Grant Thornton’s Accounting Change Implementation Group, Charles assists clients with implementing new accounting standards and technical consultations.
New York, New York
Industries
- Manufacturing, Transportation & Distribution
- Technology, media & telecommunications
Service Experience
- Advisory
Maxwell G. Mitchell
Managing Director, Transaction Advisory Services
Grant Thornton Advisors LLC
Max leads Grant Thornton’s Purchase Agreement Advisory Practice, having established the service offering for Grant Thornton in February 2019. Max previously performed the same work for Grant Thornton UK. Max has fourteen years of experience providing financial and accounting services to clients.
Chicago, Illinois
Industries
- Retail & consumer brands
- Services
- Transportation & distribution
- Construction & real estate
- Technology, media & telecommunications
- Healthcare
- Life sciences
- Manufacturing, Transportation & Distribution
- Hospitality & Restaurants
Service Experience
- Advisory
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