Close
Close

Future of tax reform complicated by polling

RFP
Tax Hot Topics newsletter Recent polls suggest most Americans don’t believe they’re paying less tax under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). In advance of a major election in 2020, the polling results could affect candidate tax platforms and the law itself.

The future of TCJA may hinge on the presidential and congressional elections in 2020, especially with major portions of the bill set to expire in 2025. The effect of the tax cuts on the economy and taxpayers could emerge as a significant campaign issue. Although many indicators still show a strong economy, the polling results show most Americans are not personally noticing lower taxes under the bill.

An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found that only 17% of taxpayers expected to pay less in taxes for the first year under the new law. An earlier Reuters/Ispos poll presented similar findings, with 20% expecting their 2018 tax liability to decrease. Nearly 60% of respondents to both polls either expected to pay more or the same. These results come despite the fact that the TCJA is estimated to reduce taxes for two-thirds of households and provide an average savings of more than $1,200 according to the Tax Policy Center.

The polling may already be affecting the upcoming election. Several candidates vying for the Democratic presidential nomination have proposed aggressive tax platforms undoing some or even all of the changes enacted by the TJCA, either to reform the tax code or pay for other programs.

Contacts:
Dustin Stamper
Managing Director
Washington National Tax Office
T +1 202 861 4144

Omair Taher
Senior Associate
Washington National Tax Office
T +1 202 861 4143

Tax professional standards statement
This content supports Grant Thornton LLP’s marketing of professional services and is not written tax advice directed at the particular facts and circumstances of any person. If you are interested in the topics presented herein, we encourage you to contact us or an independent tax professional to discuss their potential application to your particular situation. Nothing herein shall be construed as imposing a limitation on any person from disclosing the tax treatment or tax structure of any matter addressed herein. To the extent this content may be considered to contain written tax advice, any written advice contained in, forwarded with or attached to this content is not intended by Grant Thornton LLP to be used, and cannot be used, by any person for the purpose of avoiding penalties that may be imposed under the Internal Revenue Code.

The information contained herein is general in nature and is based on authorities that are subject to change. It is not, and should not be construed as, accounting, legal or tax advice provided by Grant Thornton LLP to the reader. This material may not be applicable to, or suitable for, the reader’s specific circumstances or needs and may require consideration of tax and nontax factors not described herein. Contact Grant Thornton LLP or other tax professionals prior to taking any action based upon this information. Changes in tax laws or other factors could affect, on a prospective or retroactive basis, the information contained herein; Grant Thornton LLP assumes no obligation to inform the reader of any such changes. All references to “Section,” “Sec.,” or “§” refer to the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended.